Via Jornal do Comércio".
Just over a week ago from the official start of winter, the gauchos and the local retail already have a clear perspective of how the coldest season of the year will be. With a record of temperatures below zero in most of last week, including snow in the Sierra, coats, toucas, gloves and boots came out not only from the closet, but also from the stocks. These items, which, for many traders, were stranded, are some of the articles that are feeding the optimism of entrepreneurs, who expect to sell more this season.
Surprised by the excessive cold you are doing, the merchant and artisan Nelly Soares, who has a tent in Customs Square, says it is "selling winter goods in autumn". The ice-cream days drove the output of products that were almost not demanded in previous years, such as gloves, which were almost not sold in 2015, but are now the sales champions.
Installed on site 25 years ago, it is categorical by stating that "sales have greatly improved over previous years." All articles made of crochet and knitting are made by the craftsman, who still acquires additional goods to meet customers, who among the cheapest and most expensive product spend between R$ 5,00 to R$ 80,00. Nelly is in his trade between 9:00 and 20:00. "It's nice that sales are going so well. It's just not cool being here in the cold. "
Among shopkeepers, the perspective is the same. The president of the Gaúcha Association for Retail Development (AGV), Vilson Noer, cites that this is a great period to clean stocks and even to recover the not so positive results of the last year. "The signage of people who say they want to buy products, mainly from making and footwear, is an assertive," he says.
Believe that most people will take out of the money coats to acquire characteristic products of the period, such as clothes, footwear and cosmetics. "This makes us bet on sales equal to last year," he says. The entity works with a conservative margin, attentive to the economic reality of the country, and also observing that within the retail spectrum, performance is not the same among all segments. "Sets that depend on credit and lengthening of time are more restricted," he says.
The president of Fecomércio-RS, Luiz Carlos Bohn, shares the idea that some retail activities will be more favored than others. "For some retail activities, as important as the dynamics of the economy is the climate", contextualizes. "In recent years, the lesser winters have made many people not renew their stocks of warm clothes. In 2016, apparently, we will have a more rigorous winter, which tends to stimulate the trade of clothing," he says.
Still, Bohn stressed that "the prospects for trade in general are not good for 2016". The leader points to sales "the increase in unemployment and the fall in average earnings, which has diminished the confidence of families, with negative impacts on consumption". It also points out that high inflation and high interest also restricts the purchasing power of consumers.
Recession is coming to an end, points economist
For those who are in direct contact with buyers, the expectation is optimistic. Fatima Moraes, owner of a shop in Porto Alegre, for example, expects winter to increase sales by 50%. The projection is high, recognizes, signaling that it may not be so easy to reach it, but the expectation that it can reach this percentage is not discarded in the face of the increase in demand that has been noting.
"We're already feeling an improvement," he says. Fatima reports that May was not such a good month of sales. "Only from the last week of May is that sales increased," he adds. For other shopkeepers, however, the situation is even better. "The whole month of May was very good," says Adriana Ferraz, manager of a shoe shop. The expectation is that sales are favorable and constant throughout the winter, until August. "It is already missing boot for the winter in the industry", contextualiza. Faced with the recovery felt from May, Adriana is sure to state that 2016 will generally be a better year for retail.
The recovery movement that seems to spread from this season already signals to the beginning of a recovery of the economy, according to FCDL-RS economics consultant Eduardo Starosta. "Some factors show that the shrinkage period of trade is coming to an end," he argues. "Since the beginning of the year, January, the sales drop rate has been falling. We had already anticipated at the turn of the year, that the crisis should be breathtaking, as we spent more than 10 months with two-digit fall in consumption rates in Rio Grande do Sul. That will stop repeating. "
Now, the projection is that if sales fall this month or next, the reduction will still be less marked. "In a general way, from the May indicator the falls will be small, and June and July it can already be predicted small sales increase, but very shy", he reveals.
Specifically on retail performance in the winter, Starosta calculated the impact of the overall retail seasonality in that period, between June, July and August. "There is, yes, a small heating trend of around 1% in comparison with autumn," he says. "This increase focuses basically on the area of furniture and household appliances, pharmaceutical articles, and also tends to climb the segment of vehicles and building material. "
Traditional clothing, accentuates, performs better in May, on account of the mothers' day, and in August, when winter settlements occur. The economist emphasizes that the projected recovery will be more scepter in some sectors than in others. "The branches of trade with greater dependence on bank credit or portioning of credit cards are those that present the most expressive drops of sales," he notes. "On the other hand, stores that operate with their own credit or concentrate on sight sales have less intense negative results." These should be the most favored in the winter and the second semester.